A Divided Parliament
While exit polls show Netanyahu’s Likud party is on track to remain the largest single party in parliament, his overall coalition bloc appears to fall short of a majority. Conversely, Gadi Eisenkot—a former military chief leading the newly formed Yashar party—is spearheading an opposition coalition aimed at unseating the long-serving prime minister. Current estimates place the two blocs in a near-dead heat, with some polls showing the opposition slightly ahead, though analysts caution that exit polls have historically been inaccurate in Israeli elections.
The Path Forward
With polls closed, the focus has shifted to the official vote count. The Central Elections Committee began releasing preliminary results late Tuesday, but officials warn that the process could take several days due to a high volume of absentee ballots. Final official results are not expected until November 4.
The election, widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership and his handling of the conflicts following the October 7, 2023, attacks, is likely to trigger a period of protracted political negotiations. Once the final tally is confirmed, Israel’s president will consult with party leaders to determine who has the best chance of assembling a governing coalition, a process that could span weeks or even months.
